North-South Korea flare-up: Why is it alarming? ? DW ? 10/16/2024
The situation in North Korea is "unstable" and predicting the regime's future actions has become more complicated, say analysts.
The potentially incendiary events on the Korean Peninsula in recent days have been heightening concerns in the region.
At the same time, the angry rhetoric has risen to new highs. And both North and South Korea have put their respective militaries on elevated states of alert.
"There are no changes in daily life that you can see here in Seoul, but we do have to be aware of the situation that is emerging on the peninsula," said Kim Sang-woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
"I do not actually believe that the North wants or is ready for a war," he told DW, adding that Pyongyang is practicing a tactic of brinkmanship.
"But I do fear that an accidental clash could lead to other unforeseeable consequences and could easily escalate into a major conflict."
While Kim believes both sides need to try and defuse the tensions, that does not appear to be happening.
North Korea?South Korea relations reach new low To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
North Korea on October 11 accused the South's military of sending drones over Pyongyang on three occasions and scattering propaganda leaflets.
Defense officials in Seoul have insisted that the South did not send the drones but declined to say where they may have originated. This had led to speculation they may have been operated by groups of dissidents and defectors.
Orders to fire on drones
Undeterred, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called a meeting of his own military leaders, and anti-aircraft units on the border have reportedly been ordered to shoot down any drones that are detected.
Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader's sister, described the South as a "mongrel" and warned in a statement that "the provocateurs will have to pay a dear price."
The South responded by putting its own units on alert and the governor of a province on the border identified a number of danger zones that could be targeted by the North's artillery.
The Defense Ministry in Seoul warned that the North would witness the "end of its regime" if any South Korean citizens were harmed in any clash.
North Korea on Tuesday responded by blowing up roads leading towards the Demilitarized Zone that divides the nations, an act that the South said was a symbolic move designed to underline the chasm that separates the two.
North Korea claims South sent drones to Pyongyang To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
The people of South Korea have lived in the shadow of an aggressive, unpredictable and nuclear-armed neighbor for generations and there are no outward indications of alarm on the streets of Seoul or Busan at present.
But analysts say there have been a number of fundamental changes in the North recently that appear to have changed its internal and external dynamics, making predicting its future actions more complicated.
The Kim regime has been bolstered by its new military alliance with Russia, which could be emboldening Pyongyang. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the North's economy is in dire straits and that ordinary people are struggling to survive.
Kim aims to 'rally his people'
"The North has internal difficulties and Kim is trying to rally the people around him," Kim Sang-woo, the South Korean politician, said. "The economic situation there is so bad that it is causing serious tensions, so by telling his people that South Korea and the US intend to destroy the North, Kim Jong Un hopes to win their loyalty."
Along with the daily hardships that ordinary people have had to endure, more and more North Koreans are learning about the comfortable lives of the people in South Korea through thumb drives that are smuggled over the border.
Pyongyang understands it is a threat to its regime and is attempting to stamp out with increasingly draconian punishments.
Lim Eun-jung, an associate professor of international studies at Kongju National University, agrees that the population of the North "is feeling the fatigue" of the regime's propaganda, adding that, "The younger generations have less belief in Kim, making the situation there unstable."
"Making threats against the South is cheaper than firing more missiles or carrying out another nuclear test, but it is also ironic that they are complaining about drones dropping propaganda because the North has sent thousands of balloons carrying trash into the South over the last few months," she told DW.
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Sharp rhetoric but weak position
The South Korean government estimates that more than 6,000 balloons carrying waste have crossed the border into the South in the last four months, some causing damage to buildings and vehicles and others starting fires.
"Russia is supporting the North now and recently condemned Seoul for sending a drone into the North, but they have said nothing about the balloons invading our airspace," Lim said.
Kim Jong Un may feel his regime is protected through his alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, she said, but the pact is in a "honeymoon period" that will quickly fizzle once the North has nothing more that Russia needs.
And Kim Sang-woo is firmly of the belief that despite all the North's bombast, it realizes that it could not win a war with the South and its allies.
"It's not so much that they would not be willing to go to war, it's just that they are not able to because their conventional forces could not survive," he said.
Nuclear weapons remain the regime's wild card, he agreed, but questions remain over whether Kim himself or his generals would be willing to push the button knowing that the consequences would mean the end of the nation.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
