• Politics
• Visit Article Link

• BBC Politics
• Mon Oct 13 2025

Chris Mason: SNP are the latest proof that things change quickly in politics

7 days ago Share Save Chris Mason Political editor in Aberdeen Share Save

PA Media John Swinney was the third SNP leader in a little over a year

A year or so ago, the Scottish National Party looked to be in deep trouble. They had been comprehensively thrashed in the general election, falling from 48 MPs to just nine. They had managed to have three leaders in a little over a year: Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf and then John Swinney. It was a rate of attrition that would make even the Conservative Party of recent years blush.

There had also been a high-profile and long-running police investigation into the SNP's finances, involving Sturgeon, who was told earlier this year she would face no action. Plus there were bitter rows over gender identity. And the SNP has been in devolved government in Scotland since before you could buy an iPhone ? since May 2007. Electoral gravity looked to be catching up with them, and catching up big time ? just ahead of the crucial elections to the Scottish Parliament next May.

PA Media John Swinney, with Humza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon

But in case you needed yet another reminder that our domestic politics remains a smorgasbord of competitiveness and unpredictability, the SNP is the latest case study. Swinney has brought stability to a party that indulged in the opposite for a while. And support has splintered among its rivals ? Labour, Reform and others. Here is how the pollsters More in Common put it: "Since last year's general election, Labour's support has more than halved in Scotland while the SNP has marginally improved its standing. While not seeing as significant a rise as in England, Reform has emerged as the potential second-place party after the SNP in Scotland, suppressing the Conservatives' vote share as well as eating into Labour's." Its analysis continues: "Despite losing 11 points in the constituency vote, this result would put the SNP just shy of a majority in Holyrood, mostly due to fragmentation in the other parties." Remember, this is a snapshot, not a prediction. But it is fascinating nonetheless. The mood among SNP party members and senior figures at the conference was chipper and upbeat. The party feels competitive again and not only hopeful of victory next year, but even talking of that outright majority. Just winning again, with or without a majority, would be an extraordinary achievement. The party, if it does so, would he heading into its third consecutive decade in devolved power. A majority is a big ask, with an electoral system that makes securing one tricky. But it matters because the SNP's latest attempt to make an argument for another independence referendum rests on securing a majority. The party's logic goes like this: the last time they persuaded the government at Westminster to grant one, they had won a majority at Holyrood a few years before. That majority was won by Alex Salmond in 2011. The referendum followed in 2014. So, goes the current First Minister's logic, they need a majority again so they can point at that precedent from a decade and a half ago.

PA Media Swinney is hoping to emulate the electoral success of Alex Salmond in 2011